Abstract: Milk production of western dairy developed countries in the past three years did not rise significantly caused by the rise of milk prices, which reflects the maturity of dairy industry. The reduction of export pressure to China also vacated some space for the development of China's milk production. From 2019 to 2023, China's milk production achieved a compound annual growth rate of 7%, far exceeding the average milk consumption growth rate of 4% in the past 15 years, resulting in an oversupply of raw milk and large-scale losses for farms in 2023, and the "cow cycle" has fluctuated significantly. It is expected that the industrial depression period will continue for about 2 years, and the internal industrial structure of the dairy farms will continue to adjust, and small and medium-sized dairy farms will bear the brunt, which requires the industry to pay close attention and work together to overcome the difficulties. In the medium term, the annual growth of 100,000 to 150,000 dairy cattle can meet the growth of milk consumption in China. During the adjustment period, industrial innovation can be made in the aspects of reducing dairy cow, optimizing herd structure, promoting the combination of dairy farming and crop, and optimizing dairy product processing structure.

Key words: Chinese dairy industry, dairy industry situation, dairy industry outlook