[目的] 建立一种较直观、快速、便捷的繁殖评价方法,为高效奶牛繁育进行有效评价提供科学理论支撑。[方法] 对南北疆不同养殖模式的6 个规模化牧场进行相关繁殖数据收集与整理,并分析21 天妊娠率与发情揭发率、受胎率之间的相关性,建立以发情揭发率、受胎率为变量的线性回归方程,对影响奶牛怀孕的关键因素进行全面客观评估。[结果] 成母牛21 天妊娠率与发情揭发率、受胎率显著正相关（P<0.01）,并建立相关回归方程,青年母牛：Y=-0.532+0.906X+0.599Z,R²=0.990;成母牛：Y=-0.282+0.701X+0.415Z,R²=992（其中Y为21 天妊娠率,X为受胎率,Z为发情揭发率）。[结论] 繁育人员可借助回归方程预测相关指标,快速、准确、便捷地在发情揭发率、受胎率两个关键性指标上提升,为牧场月度繁殖评估提供准确依据,为实现牧场高效奶牛繁育提供切实可行的路径及方案。

[Objective] To establish a more intuitive,rapid and convenient breeding evaluation method to provide scientific theoretical support for efficient breeding evaluation of dairy cows.[Method] Relevant reproductive data were collected and collated from 6 large-scale pastures with different breeding modes in southern and northern Xinjiang,and the correlation between 21-day pregnancy rate,estrus disclosure rate and conception rate was analyzed. A linear regression equation with estrus disclosure rate and conception rate as variables was established,and the key factors affecting the pregnancy of dairy cows were comprehensively and objectively evaluated.[Result] The 21-day pregnancy rate of adult cows was positively correlated with estrus detection rate and conception rate （P < 0.01）,and the correlation regression equation was established. For young cows, Y=-0.532+0.906X+0.599Z,R²=0.990. Adult cows：Y=-0.282+0.701X+0.415Z,R²=992 （where Y is the 21-day gestation rate,X is the conception rate,and Z is the estrus detection rate）.[Conclusion] Breeders can use the regression equation to predict the relevant indicators,quickly,accurately and conveniently improve the two key indicators of estrus detection rate and conception rate,providing an accurate basis for the monthly breeding assessment of pasture,and providing a feasible path and program for realizing efficient breeding of dairy cows in pasture.