本研究基于2019—2024年甘肃省奶产业实证数据,通过产业链分析与政策评估,揭示其“规模扩张与结构优化并行,成本压力与市场瓶颈并存”的发展特征。研究表明,甘肃省依托“黄金奶源带”优势,2024年奶牛存栏量增至38.3 万头（年均增4.5%）,牛奶产量跃至116.3 万吨（年均增21.7%）,规模化率达81%,并形成五大优势产区及“甘味”品牌矩阵。但成本价格倒挂、产能过剩及消费疲软制约了产业的可持续发展,本研究也据此提出产业链整合、政策协同、科技赋能、需求激活等对策建议,旨在为西北寒旱地区奶业高质量发展提供理论参考与实践路径。

This study based on empirical data from the dairy industry in Gansu Province from 2019 to 2024,revealed its developmental characteristics of "simultaneous scale expansion and structural optimization,coexisting with cost pressures and market bottlenecks" through industrial chain analysis and policy evaluation. The research indicated that leveraging the advantage of the "Golden Milk Source Belt," Gansu Province saw its dairy cattle inventory increase to 383 000 heads （average annual growth of 4.5%） and milk production surge to 1.163 million tons （average annual growth of 21.7%）by 2024. The scale operation rate reached 81%,forming five major advantage production areas and a "Ganwei" brand matrix. However,cost-price inversion,overcapacity,and weak consumption constrain the sustainable development of the industry. Accordingly,this study proposed countermeasures and suggestions such as industrial chain integration,policy coordination,technology empowerment,and demand stimulation,aiming to provide theoretical reference and practical pathways for the high-quality development of the dairy industry in cold and arid regions of Northwest China.