中国作为全球最大的乳制品进口国和消费国,乳制品进口贸易呈现逆差不断扩大、进口市场集中度高等显著特点。本文利用2015—2023年中国乳制品进口月度数据,对乳制品的进口来源国、进口总量、进口产品结构等现状及趋势进行分析,运用Rotterdam模型测算乳制品进口需求弹性。结果显示：中国对乳制品进口需求刚性,对新西兰和澳大利亚的乳制品进口具有显著偏好。据此,应强化质量规制与关税调控,推进进口来源多元化与监管精细化,完善国际议价机制与规则话语权,并提出应对进口贸易激增及乳制品进口规制的相应措施。

As the world's largest importer and consumer of dairy products, China exhibits distinctive characteristics in its dairy trade, including a widening deficit and high concentration in import markets. Utilizing monthly import data of Chinese dairy products from 2015 to 2023, this study analyzed the current landscape and trends in terms of source countries, import volume, and product structure. The Rotterdam model is employed to estimate the import demand elasticity for dairy products. The findings indicate that China's import demand for dairy products is inelastic, with a pronounced preference for imports from New Zealand and Australia. To address these patterns, it is recommended to strengthen quality regulations and tariff controls, promote diversification of import sources and refinement of supervision mechanisms, and enhance international bargaining power and rule-making influence.