欧盟乳制品贸易网络结构特征对中国乳制品进口效率的影响研究——基于复杂贸易网络模型

doi:10.12377/1671-4393.24.12.03

中国乳业 ›› 2024, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (12): 15-24.doi: 10.12377/1671-4393.24.12.03

欧盟乳制品贸易网络结构特征对中国乳制品进口效率的影响研究——基于复杂贸易网络模型

闫佳雯, 刘佳佳, 霍广军, 张庆萍^*

新疆农业大学经济管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830052

出版日期:2024-12-25 发布日期:2025-01-03
通讯作者: ^*张庆萍（1974-）,女,河南社旗人,博士,教授,研究方向为农业经济与贸易。
作者简介:闫佳雯（2001-）,女,新疆乌鲁木齐人,硕士,研究方向为农业经济;刘佳佳（1997-）,女,河南太康人,硕士,研究方向为农产品贸易;霍广军（1998-）,男,河北保定人,硕士,研究方向为区域经济

The Impact of the Structural Features of the EU Dairy Trade Network on the Efficiency of China's Dairy Imports——Based on Complex Trade Network Model

YAN Jiawen, LIU Jiajia, HUO Guangjun, ZHANG Qingping^*

College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830052

Online:2024-12-25 Published:2025-01-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在中国乳制品对外依赖度高、世界乳制品贸易不确定性增大背景下,基于保障中国乳业安全视角,本文用复杂网络模型研究欧盟乳制品贸易网络整体特征,并从节点强度、中介中心性、接近中心性三个维度刻画个体特征。进一步引入时变随机前沿引力模型,检验欧盟乳制品贸易网络结构特征、中国乳制品进口效率内在联系。结果显示：欧盟乳制品贸易越发紧密,成员国存在很强异质性。中介中心性、接近中心性、出强度促进乳制品贸易效率,但入强度增大贸易阻力。中国从欧盟进口乳制品整体贸易效率偏低,待挖掘潜力、拓展空间很大。中国应把握欧盟乳制品贸易网络特征发展趋势,差异化管理贸易伙伴国,积极展开贸易合作,提高乳制品进口效率,保障中国乳业安全。

关键词: 复杂网络模型, 随机前沿引力模型, 贸易效率, 贸易潜力

Abstract: Under the background of China's high dependence on foreign dairy products and the increasing uncertainty of world dairy trade,based on the perspective of ensuring the safety of China's dairy industry,this paper used a complex network model to study the overall characteristics of the EU dairy trade network,and described the individual characteristics from three dimensions: node strength, intermediary centrality and proximity centrality. The time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model is further introduced to test the structural characteristics of the EU dairy trade network and the internal relationship between China's dairy import efficiency. The results showed that the EU's dairy trade is becoming more and more intense,and there is strong heterogeneity among member states. Intermediary centrality, proximity to centrality,and output intensity promote the efficiency of dairy trade, but the intensity of entry increases trade resistance. The overall trade efficiency of China's dairy products imported from the EU is low,and there is a lot of potential to be tapped and there is a lot of room for expansion. China should grasp the development trend of the characteristics of the EU's dairy trade network, manage its trading partners differently,actively carry out trade cooperation, improve the efficiency of dairy imports,and ensure the safety of China's dairy industry.

Key words: complex network model, stochastic frontier gravity model, trade efficiency, trade potential

闫佳雯, 刘佳佳, 霍广军, 张庆萍. 欧盟乳制品贸易网络结构特征对中国乳制品进口效率的影响研究——基于复杂贸易网络模型[J]. 中国乳业, 2024, 0(12): 15-24.

YAN Jiawen, LIU Jiajia, HUO Guangjun, ZHANG Qingping. The Impact of the Structural Features of the EU Dairy Trade Network on the Efficiency of China's Dairy Imports——Based on Complex Trade Network Model[J]. China Dairy, 2024, 0(12): 15-24.

参考文献

[1] 孙田田,何忠伟,刘芳,等.中国乳制品供给安全形势分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2023,44(9):14-25.
[2] Xue H D,Li C G,Wang L M,et al.Spatial price transmission and price dynamics of global butter export market under economic shocks[J].Sustainability,2021,13,92-97.
[3] Davis C G,Hahn W.Assessing the status of the global dairy trade.Editor’s introduction[J].International Food and Agribusiness Management Review,2016,19(Issue B),1-10.
[4] Das A,Sivaram M,Thejesh S.Economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic on dairy sector:A meta-analysis[J].Indian Journal of Animal Science,2021,91,582-594.
[5] 王祥,强文丽,牛叔文,等.全球农产品贸易网络及其演化分析[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(6):940-953.
[6] 刘长全,韩磊,张元红.中国奶业竞争力国际比较及发展思路[J].中国农村经济,2018(7):130-144.
[7] 李翠霞,苏甜甜,许佳彬.世界乳制品贸易网络特征演变及影响因素[J].世界农业,2023(2):24-37.
[8] 宋亚东,李翠霞.中国乳制品国际竞争力影响因素及贸易潜力[J].中国流通经济,2021,35(6):62-73.
[9] 杨兴龙,刘争争,滕奎秀.我国乳制品进口效率及潜力研究——基于随机前沿引力模型的分析[J].中国农机化学报,2022,43(7):124-130.
[10] Kondaridz M,Luckstea J.Determinants of dairy-product trade:Do subsidies matter?[J].Journal of Agricultural Economics,2023.
[11] 马述忠,任婉婉,吴国杰.一国农产品贸易网络特征及其对全球价值链分工的影响——基于社会网络分析视角[J].管理世界,2016(3):60-72.
[12] 马远,张瑞.美欧俄石油供应贸易网络对中国石油进口效率的影响研究[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版),2022,43(4):8-19.
[13] Hu F,Xi X,Zhang Y.Co-opetition relationships and evolution of the world dairy trade network:Implications for policy-maker psychology[J].Frontiers in Psychology,2021(11):1-8.
[14] Bai Z,Liu C,Wang H.Evolution characteristics and influencing factors of global dairy trade[J].Sustainability,2023,15(2):931.
[15] 李翠霞,苏甜甜.“一带一路”沿线国家乳制品贸易网络分析及中国的地位变化[J].中国乳品工业,2022,50(12):39-43,58.
[16] Fagiolo G,Reyes J,Schiavo S.World-trade web:Topological properties,dynamics,and evolution[J].Physical Review E,2009,79(3):1-9.
[17] Serrano M A,Boguna M.Topology of the world trade web[J].Physical Review E,2003,68(1):634-646.
[18] Albert R,Barabasi A L.Statistical mechanics of complex networks[J].Reviews of Modern Physics,2002,74(1):47.
[19] 钟祖昌,余佩璇,肖宵,等.高技术产品出口贸易网络构建对一国或地区全球价值链分工位置的影响研究:基于社会网络分析的视角[J].管理评论,2022,34(3):127-140.
[20] 吕延方,方若楠,王冬.全球数字服务贸易网络的拓扑结构特征及影响机制[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2021,38(10):128-147.
[21] 聂常乐,姜海宁,段健.21世纪以来全球粮食贸易网络空间格局演化[J].经济地理,2021,41(7):119-127.
[22] 祝孔超,赵媛,夏四友,等.“一带一路”石油产品贸易网络演化分析[J].世界地理研究,1-13.
[23] 陈银飞. 2000—2009年世界贸易格局的社会网络分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011(11):31-42.
[24] 曹芳芳,孙致陆,李先德.中国进口拉丁美洲农产品的影响因素分析及贸易效率测算——基于时变随机前沿引力模型的实证分析[J].世界农业,2021(4):13-22,52,111.
[25] Battese G E,Coelli T J.A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data[J].Empirical Economics,1995,20(2):325-332.
[26] 王彦芳,陈淑梅,高佳汇.“一带一路”贸易网络对中国贸易效率的影响——兼论与TPP、TTIP、RCEP的比较[J].亚太经济,2019(1):49-55,154.
[27] 王妍,范爱军.全球粮食进口竞争格局及影响因素研究[J].经济学家,2023(5):118-128.

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed

欧盟乳制品贸易网络结构特征对中国乳制品进口效率的影响研究——基于复杂贸易网络模型

The Impact of the Structural Features of the EU Dairy Trade Network on the Efficiency of China's Dairy Imports——Based on Complex Trade Network Model

PDF (PC)

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 0

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0