关键词: 奶业现状, 乳制品贸易潜力, 印度尼西亚

Abstract: Indonesia is a major agricultural country,but its dairy industry remains underdeveloped,primarily relying on smallholder farming （average herd size below 5 cows）,with over 70% of raw milk supplied by dairy cooperatives and a low proportion of modern dairy farms. In 2023,the national dairy cattle inventory stood at 258 800 heads,with milk production reaching 672 000 tons—only 2.42 kg per capita annually,far below international standards. Consequently,Indonesia heavily depends on dairy imports,which have shown an overall upward trend over the past decade,while exports remain low （25 000~52 000 tons）,resulting in a significant trade deficit. Milk powder is the primary imported category,accounting for 27.33% （261 500 tons） in 2023,New Zealand,the U.S.,Australia,and three other countries dominating the stable trade structure. Dairy trade between Indonesia and China has been limited,with infant formula being the main import from China in recent years. Considering trade policies,Indonesia’s Free Nutritious Meal Program,and dairy price competitiveness,China hold geographical and cost advantages in dairy exporting,indicating notable cooperation potential.

Key words: dairy industry status, dairy trade potential, Indonesia