中国乳业 ›› 2021, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (12): 11-17.doi: 10.12377/1671-4393.21.12.02

• 奶业经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Z-score模型的财务风险分析——以新疆天润乳业为例

阿依达娜·巴勒卡提, 陈昌明*   

  1. 西南大学经济与管理学院,重庆 400715
  • 出版日期:2021-12-25 发布日期:2022-01-07
  • 通讯作者: *陈昌明（1962-）,男,四川人,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为财务会计。
  • 作者简介:阿依达娜·巴勒卡提（1994-）,女,哈萨克族,新疆塔城人,在读硕士,研究方向为财务会计。

Financial Risk Analysis Based on Z-score Model -- Taking Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd as an Example

Ayidana·BALEKATI, CHEN Changming*   

  1. School of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715
  • Online:2021-12-25 Published:2022-01-07

PDF (PC)

1429

摘要： Z-score模型是由Edward Altman提出的衡量企业财务风险的多元模型。本文以新疆天润乳业股份有限公司（简称“新疆天润乳业”）为例,基于Z-score模型的适用性,结合企业发布的财务数据公告,利用传统的会计财务风险分析与Z-score模型财务风险分析相结合的方法,分析发生财务风险的原因,并将新疆天润乳业与同行业龙头企业内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称“伊利股份”）进行横向比较,提出对应的对策和思路。结果表明,新疆天润乳业的财务状况较好,短期内出现破产的概率较低,但是与同行业龙头企业伊利股份相比还是有一定的差距。

关键词: Z-score模型, 财务风险, 新疆天润乳业

Abstract: The Z-score model is a multivariate model proposed by Edward Altman to measure the financial risk of an enterprise. Taking Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd.as an example,this paper combined the applicability of the Z-score model with the financial statement,using traditional financial accounting risk analysis with Z - score model financial risk analysis method,to analyze the cause of the financial risk. Furthermore,this work compared Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd with its leading corporation,Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. in the same dairy industry and put forward corresponding countermeasures. The research results indicated that Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd. is in a healthy financial position,and the possibility of financial crisis in the short term is relatively low. But there is still a certain gap compared with Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. which is the leading enterprise in the dairy industry.

Key words: Z-score model, financial risk, Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd.

[1] 向德伟. 运用“Z记分法”评价上市公司经营风险的实证研究[J].会计研究,2002(11):53-57.
[2] Altman,Edward,Kimura,et al. Machine learning models and bankruptcy prediction[J]. Expert Systems with Application,2017.
[3] 何小倩.基于Z值模型的新能源汽车上市公司财务预警分析[J].时代金融,2016(15):196,200.
[4] 叶建华,林禹.基于Z模型的医药制造业上市公司财务风险实证分析[J].宁夏大学学报(人文社会科学版),2017,39(4):123-126
[5] 黄阳锦. WK房地产公司的财务风险预警研究:[硕士论文][D].武汉:华中科技大学,2018.
[6] 常冰清. 煤炭企业财务风险控制研究——以西山煤电为例[J].现代经济信息,2019(13):300.
[7] 杨凡,卞鹰.中药上市企业财务风险现状及其影响因素分析[J].中国药业,2020,29(8):56-60.
[8] 周晓霞,姚晓林,张亚敏.新冠疫情背景下医药制造上市公司财务风险预警研究[J].商业会计,2021(4):76-79.
[9] Altman E I.The prediction of corporate bankruptcy:a discriminant analysis[J].Journal of Finance,1968,23(1):193-194.
No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
ISSN 1671-4393
CN 11-4768/S
主管：中华人民共和国农业农村部
主办：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所
地址：北京市海淀区中关村南大街12号
邮编：100081
电话：010-82106772
E-mail：zhgry@caas.cn

版权所有 © 《中国乳业》编辑部