印度尼西亚是农业大国,但奶业发展相对滞后,以小农户养殖为主（平均饲养规模不足5 头）,70%以上的生鲜乳来自乳业合作社,现代化牧场占比较低。2023年,全国奶牛存栏25.88 万头,牛奶产量67.2 万吨,人均供应量仅2.42 kg/年,远低于国际水平,乳制品长期依赖进口,近10年进口量总体呈上升趋势,而出口量始终较低（2.5 万~5.2 万吨）,导致贸易逆差显著。大包粉是其主要进口品类,2023年占比27.33%（26.15 万吨）,新西兰、美国、澳大利亚等六国是其主要进口来源国,且贸易格局稳定。印度尼西亚与中国的乳制品贸易量不大,近5年从中国进口乳制品以婴幼儿配方乳粉为主,综合贸易政策、印度尼西亚“免费营养餐计划”以及乳制品价格分析,中国乳制品出口到印度尼西亚市场具有一定地缘与成本优势,具有较为明显的合作潜力。

Indonesia is a major agricultural country,but its dairy industry remains underdeveloped,primarily relying on smallholder farming （average herd size below 5 cows）,with over 70% of raw milk supplied by dairy cooperatives and a low proportion of modern dairy farms. In 2023,the national dairy cattle inventory stood at 258 800 heads,with milk production reaching 672 000 tons—only 2.42 kg per capita annually,far below international standards. Consequently,Indonesia heavily depends on dairy imports,which have shown an overall upward trend over the past decade,while exports remain low （25 000~52 000 tons）,resulting in a significant trade deficit. Milk powder is the primary imported category,accounting for 27.33% （261 500 tons） in 2023,New Zealand,the U.S.,Australia,and three other countries dominating the stable trade structure. Dairy trade between Indonesia and China has been limited,with infant formula being the main import from China in recent years. Considering trade policies,Indonesia’s Free Nutritious Meal Program,and dairy price competitiveness,China hold geographical and cost advantages in dairy exporting,indicating notable cooperation potential.