中国乳业 ›› 2023, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 34-40.doi: 10.12377/1671-4393.23.04.04

• 奶业经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国奶牛周期的初步探索

夏建民1, 魏勇2, 王蔚1, 李胜利1   

  1. 1 中国农业大学动物科学技术学院,北京 100193;
    2 新疆天润乳业股份有限公司,新疆乌鲁木齐 830000
  • 出版日期:2023-04-25 发布日期:2023-04-28
  • 作者简介:夏建民（1986-）,男,安徽太和人,博士,高级畜牧师,研究方向为动物营养和产业分析;魏 勇（1980-）,男,四川资中人,硕士,高级兽医师,研究方向为奶牛繁殖、生鲜乳质量管理;王 蔚（1987-）,女,河南南阳人,蒙古族,博士,副教授,研究方向为动物营养和碳减排;李胜利（1965-）,男,新疆乌鲁木齐人,博士,教授,研究方向为动物营养与饲料。
  • 基金资助:
    财政部和农业农村部-国家现代农业产业技术体系项目（CARS36）; 兵团第十二师科技“揭榜挂帅”项目-提高奶牛饲草料利用效率综合技术研究与应用（SRS2022001）

The Proposition and Research of the Chinese Dairy Cow Cycle

XIA Jianmin1, WEI Yong2, WANG Wei1, LI Shengli1   

  1. 1College of Animal Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193;
    2Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi Xinjiang 830000
  • Online:2023-04-25 Published:2023-04-28

PDF (PC)

128

摘要： 本文对改革开放后我国生鲜乳价格、奶牛扩群和生鲜乳产量增速变化特点进行分析,提出奶牛养殖业存在类似典型畜牧业周期的“中国奶牛周期”,跨度长达8~9 年,每个周期可分为“景气”+“调整”两阶段。牛奶消费增速不均衡、从业者非理性和奶牛繁殖长周期共同导致的生鲜乳供需错配,可能是中国奶牛周期产生的深层原因。通过4 轮周期更替,当前我国奶牛养殖业在产业素质、一体化程度和产业成熟度方面均呈现积极变化。中国奶牛周期的探索对奶牛养殖业经营管理有积极参考意义。

关键词: 中国奶业, 奶牛周期, 奶业展望

Abstract: By analyzing the fluctuation of raw milk price,imported breeding cattle and the growth rate of raw milk production of Chinese dairy farming industry after 1980,this paper proposed that the existence of the Chinese dairy cow cycle similar to typical husbandry cycles.The Chinese dairy cow cycle has a cycle length of 8 to 9 years,which can be further divided into two stages：prosperity and depression.The mismatch between the supply and demand of raw milk caused by the unbalanced growth rate of consumption,the irrationality of practitioners,and the longer cycle of dairy cow reproduction may be the deep cause for the cycle.Through replacement of four round cycles,positive changes have taken place today in the industrial quality,integration of farming and processing and modernization for Chinese dairy industry.The proposal and research of Chinese dairy cow cycle have positive function to industry management and enterprise operation.

Key words: Chinese dairy industry, dairy cow cycle, dairy industry outlook

[1] Rausser G C, Cargill T F.The existence of broiler cycles: an application of spectral analysis[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1970, 52(1):109-121.
[2] Chavas J P.On information and market dynamics:The case of the U.S. beef market[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2000,24(5-7):833-853.
[3] Waugh F V,Miller M M.Fish cycles:A harmonic analysis[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1970,52(3):422-430.
[4] Coase R H,Fowler R F.Bacon production and the pig cycle in Great Britain[J]. Economica, 1935, 2(6):142-167.
[5] Dawson P J.The UK pig cycle:a spectral analysis[J].British Food Journal,2009,111(11):1237-1247.
[6] 李晓宇. 猪周期建模及“保险+期货”作用模拟[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2021.
[7] Hansen B G,Li Y S.An analysis of past world market prices of feed and milk and predictions for the future[J].Agribusiness,2017,33(2):175-193.
[8] Nicholson C F,Stephenson M W.Milk price cycles in the U.S. dairy supply chain and their management implications[J].Agribusiness,2015,31(4):507-520.
[9] Bergmann D,O’Connor D,Thümmel A.Seasonal and cyclical behaviour of farm gate milk prices[J].British Food Journal,2015,117(12):2899-2913.
[10] 张艳新,赵慧峰,张曼玉,等.借鉴国外经验处理中国倒奶事件[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医(下半月),2015(12):224-227.
[11] 刘成果. 中国奶业史.通史卷[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2013.
[12] 王莉. 2007年我国奶业发展回顾及趋势展望[J].中国畜牧杂志,2008,44(2):32-35.
[13] 中国奶业年鉴编辑委员会. 中国奶业年鉴2016[M]. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2017.
[14] 吴瑛. 基于蛛网理论的我国近10年生猪价格波动分析[J].广东农业科学,2011(3):106-108.
[15] 夏建民,李胜利,王蔚,等.2020年中国规模奶牛场产业素质研究报告[J].中国畜牧杂志,2021,57(9):267-271.
[16] 王祖力. 2021年养猪业十大热点事件盘点[J].猪业科学,2022,39(2):30-32.
[1] 刘长全, 韩磊. 2019年中国奶业经济形势回顾及2020年展望[J]. 中国乳业, 2020, 0(2): 12-18.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!
ISSN 1671-4393
CN 11-4768/S
主管：中华人民共和国农业农村部
主办：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所
地址：北京市海淀区中关村南大街12号
邮编：100081
电话：010-82106772
E-mail：zhgry@caas.cn

版权所有 © 《中国乳业》编辑部