关键词: 中国液态奶进口, 市场结构, 需求价格弹性, 双对数模型

Abstract: Based on data from the UN Comtrade Database and China's macroeconomic statistics from 2004 to 2024,this paper employed CR₄,CR₈,HHI,the Lorenz curve,and a double-logarithmic model to systematically analyze the import market structure of liquid milk in China from the dual perspectives of market concentration and price elasticity of demand.The results showed that：China's liquid milk import market has a "high oligopoly" structure for a long time,and the overall concentration shows a fluctuating downward trend.The dominant position of New Zealand,Germany and other core source countries is stable,and the market distribution is highly uneven. China's liquid milk imports are generally price elastic,but there are significant differences between countries. Among them,the absolute value of the price elasticity of demand in New Zealand,the Netherlands and other countries is less than 1,and the demand lacks elasticity,which is conducive to stabilizing the import cost.Spain,Australia,France and other countries have moderate elasticity.Britain,Italy and other countries have high elasticity,which is conducive to coping with price fluctuations.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposed to build a diversified import strategy,which aims to provide a theoretical basis and policy reference for improving the stability,economy and anti risk ability of China's liquid milk import trade.

Key words: China's liquid milk imports, market structure, price elasticity of demand, double-logarithmic model